[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 May 17 issued 2337 UT on 05 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat May 6 09:37:51 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 5 May. Very 
Low to Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 
three UT days (6-8 May) with a chance for C-class flares. No 
Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available SOHO 
LASCO coronagraph images. A slow-moving CME was observed traveling 
to the North East, starting around 04/1600 UT on Stereo A and 
around 05/0200 UT on SOHO LASCO C2 images, but it is not expected 
to impact Earth. The solar wind speed varied between 360 to 380 
km/s for most of the past 24 hours, with a period of moderately 
elevated speeds, 400 to 420 km/s, between 05/0936 UT and 05/1700 
UT. Wind speeds are currently around 355 km/s. The IMF Bt varied 
between 6-8 nT and the Bz component varied between 1-7 nT over 
the last 24 hours. Solar winds are expected to remain at nominal 
levels over the next three UT days (6-8 May).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22011001
      Cocos Island         1   22000000
      Darwin               4   32101002
      Townsville           4   32111011
      Learmonth            1   21010000
      Alice Springs        2   22010001
      Culgoora             2   22011001
      Gingin               1   21000000
      Camden               2   22011001
      Canberra             2   22011000
      Launceston           2   22011000
      Hobart               2   21011000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                4   23210000
      Mawson               3   32110000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   0110 1224     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 May     5    Quiet
08 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 5 May, with some areas 
experiencing Unsettled levels at the start of the UT day. Magnetic 
conditions are expected to be mainly Quiet, with the chance of 
Unsettled periods, on UT day 6 May, and at Quiet levels on UT 
days 7 to 8 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 May     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
07 May    10    Near predicted monthly values
08 May    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the UT day, 5 May, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels over the Southern Australian region. The Northern 
Australian region experienced Minor to Moderate depressions during 
the local day. The Niue Island region experienced Moderate depressions 
during the local day. Sporadic E was observed, mainly in the 
low latitudes. MUFs may experience Minor depressions on UT day 
6 May but are expected to be near monthly predicted levels on 
7-8 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    20800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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