[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Mar 27 10:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today (26 March, UT).
The effect of the recurrent coronal hole has nearly vanished.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from ~430 km/s to ~370
km/s over the UT day today. The north-south component of the
IMF, Bz varied mostly between +/-3 nT until 1900 UT and then
showed variations between +5/-4 nT. Bt stayed mostly between
2 and 4 nT by 1900 UT and then rose up to ~6 nT. The effect of
another recurrent coronal hole is expected to strengthen the
solar wind stream from 27 March. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next 3 days (27 to 29 March) with a slight
chance of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21010001
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 2 21010101
Townsville 2 21010101
Learmonth 2 21010101
Alice Springs 2 21010101
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Culgoora 2 21010001
Gingin 1 20000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 2 21011001
Hobart 2 21010001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 10010000
Casey 5 22310102
Mawson 10 41313212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 25 Quiet to active, minor storm possible
28 Mar 35 Unsettled to minor storm, major storm possible
29 Mar 35 Unsettled to minor storm, major storm possible
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 25 March and
is current for 27-28 Mar. Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet
levels in the Aus/NZ regions today (26 March, UT). Due to the
effect of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole, geomagnetic
activity is expected to rise up to active levels with some possibility
of minor storm conditions on 27 March (UT). Unsettled to minor
storm levels of activity are expected on 28 and 29 March with
the possibility of some major storm periods on these days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
29 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values today
(26 March, UT) with some periods of minor to mild depressions
in the mid latitude regions. Due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels from 27 March, minor to mild MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions are possible on this day. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are likely on 28 and 29 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
28 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 21 was issued
on 25 March and is current for 27-28 Mar. MUFs across the Australian/NZ
region were mostly near predicted monthly values today (26 March,
UT) with some periods of minor to mild depressions in the Northern
regions. Due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels
from 27 March, minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are possible on this day. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are likely
in this region on 28 and 29 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 494 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 231000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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