[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 08 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Mar 9 10:30:24 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Mar             10 Mar             11 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels over the last 
24 hours. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next 3 UT days (9-11 Mar) with a slight chance for C-class 
flares. The solar wind speeds remained elevated. They started 
the UT day around 550 km/s, then gradually declined to around 
505 km/s. Around 08/1500 UT, the wind speeds started to increase, 
levelling off at around 550 km/s. The IMF Bt reached a maximum 
around 6 nT and is currently around 4 nT. The Bz component varied 
between -5 nT and +5 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue 
to decline during 9-11 Mar but will remain above nominal values.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21122233
      Cocos Island         6   21121232
      Darwin               9   31122233
      Townsville           9   31122233
      Learmonth           11   31123333
      Alice Springs        8   21122233
      Norfolk Island       5   21122122
      Culgoora             8   21122233
      Gingin              15   31123353
      Canberra             6   20122132
      Launceston          11   32133233
      Hobart               9   21123233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    14   20145232
      Casey               18   43433243
      Mawson              55   54332386

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              58   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            61   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   3433 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar     7    Quiet
11 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across the Australian region 
on UT day 8 Mar was at Quiet to Unsettled levels. Active to Storm 
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 9 Mar and 
mostly Quiet on 10-11 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions are expected in high latitude regions due to the 
ongoing unsettled geomagnetic conditions associated with the 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Mar     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      10
Mar      16
Apr      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
10 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs across the Northern Australian region were near 
predicted monthly values for most of the UT day 8 Mar with minor 
depressions during the local night. MUFs in the Southern Australian 
and Antarctic regions experienced minor depressions during the 
UT day. The Niue Island Region had severely depressed MUFs during 
the local night. Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are expected 
over most of the Australian region during the next UT day (9 
Mar). Minor to moderate depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
are expected in the Southern Australian and Antarctic regions 
due to the recent unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Conditions 
are expected to return to near predicted monthly values on 10 
Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 588 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   299000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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