[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 March 17 issued 2335 UT on 06 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Mar 7 10:35:32 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels over the last 
24 hours. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next 3 UT days (7-9 Mar) with a slight chance for C-class 
flares. The solar wind speeds remained elevated but gradually 
declined as the influence of a recurrent coronal hole decreased. 
The wind speeds are declining but variable with the wind speed 
peaking around 665 km/s early in the UT day 6 Mar and dropping 
to 580 km/s later in the UT day. It is currently around 600 km/s. 
The IMF Bt varied between 4-6 nT and is currently around 5 nT. 
The Bz component varied between -6 nT and +6 nT. Solar wind speeds 
are expected to continue to decline on 7 Mar but will remain 
above nominal values.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   22234333
      Cocos Island        11   21124333
      Darwin              11   22233323
      Townsville          13   22234333
      Learmonth           18   32235343
      Alice Springs       12   22233333
      Norfolk Island      10   22133233
      Culgoora            12   22233333
      Gingin              21   31245443
      Canberra             9   21133232
      Launceston          16   32244333
      Hobart              13   22234333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    43   33276453
      Casey               29   34544354
      Mawson              68   65344486

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   3233 2243     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar    13    Quiet to Active
08 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across the Australian region 
on UT day 6 Mar was at Quiet to Active levels with isolated Minor 
Storm levels. Active to Storm periods were observed in the Antarctic 
region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at Quiet to 
Active levels for 7-Mar then Quiet to Unsettled levels on 8-9 
Mar.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions are expected in high latitude regions due to the 
ongoing unsettled geomagnetic conditions associated with the 
coronal hole.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Mar     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      10
Mar      16
Apr      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs across the Northern Australian region were near 
predicted monthly values during the UT day 6 March. MUFs in the 
Cocos Island and Southern Australian Regions experienced minor 
depressions. MUFs in the Niue Island Region were enhanced during 
the local day. Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are expected 
over most of the Australian region with minor to moderate depressions 
expected in the Southern Australian region during the next three 
UT days (7-9 March) due to the ongoing unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 632 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   345000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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