[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Mar 3 10:30:17 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 2 March. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for
the next 3 UT days (3-5 March) with a chance for C-class flares.
No earthward directed CME was observed in the available LASCO
imagery. The solar wind speed was high, 620-740 km/s, due to
a high speed stream associated with the recurrent coronal hole.
The IMF Bt and its Bz component stayed in the ranges 5-7 nT and
-5/+4 nT, respectively, with prolonged periods with negative
Bz. During the next 24 h the solar wind speed will gradually
decrease but it will remain enhanced.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 17 33344332
Cocos Island 12 33233331
Darwin 14 33334322
Townsville 16 33344232
Learmonth 21 33345342
Alice Springs 17 33344332
Norfolk Island 13 23343231
Culgoora 16 33344232
Gingin 18 33344342
Canberra 14 33343231
Launceston 22 34454332
Hobart 18 33444332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 49 34576542
Casey 30 45545333
Mawson 55 74444474
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 100 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 32 3434 4465
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 17 Active
04 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Across the Australian region on UT day 2 March geomagnetic
activity was predominantly at unsettled to active levels due
to the effect of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole. Quiet conditions were observed during the last
3 hours of the UT day. Isolated periods with active levels can
be observed during 3 March, then geomagnetic activity is expected
to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 4-5 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degradations in HF conditions are observed on 2 March
due to increased geomagnetic activity. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions and degradations in HF conditions are likely during
the next two UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
04 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
05 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly depressed by 15%-35% across the Australian
regions during UT day 2 March. Similar conditions are expected
for 3 March. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are likely during
4 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 14.9 p/cc Temp: 341000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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