[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 28 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Mar 1 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 81/22
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 28 February. Region 2641 (now at N17E34) produced a B7.7
flare that peaked at 1151 UT. Very low to low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next 3 UT days (1-3 March). No
earthward directed CME was observed in the available LASCO imagery.
The solar wind speed varied in the range 390-440 km/s. The IMF
Bt and its Bz component stayed in the ranges 4-9 nT and +5/-5
nT, respectively. During the next 24 h the solar wind speed is
expected to increase due to a negative polarity recurrent coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21112122
Cocos Island 3 10111221
Darwin 4 21111122
Townsville 5 21112122
Learmonth 5 20112222
Alice Springs 4 11112122
Norfolk Island 4 21112022
Culgoora 5 21112122
Gingin 7 21111332
Canberra 3 11002121
Launceston 6 21112232
Hobart 5 21112122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 11113122
Casey 12 33432222
Mawson 23 54222354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1111 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 23 Active to Minor Storm
02 Mar 18 Active
03 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 27 February
and is current for 28 Feb to 2 Mar. Geomagnetic activity was
at quiet levels across the Australian region on UT day 28 February.
Activity is expected to gradually increase to active levels on
1 March due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a negative polarity recurrent coronal hole. This coronal hole
effect may keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced to unsettled
to active levels with the possibility of minor storm periods
on 1-3 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
UT day 28 February. Degradations in HF conditions are expected
on 1-3 March due to increased geomagnetic activity. Minor to
moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are
likely during the next three UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
02 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 16 was issued
on 28 February and is current for 28 Feb to 2 Mar. MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian regions
during UT day 28 February. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions are likely during 1-3 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 32000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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