[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 28 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Mar 1 10:30:19 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              81/22

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT 
day 28 February. Region 2641 (now at N17E34) produced a B7.7 
flare that peaked at 1151 UT. Very low to low levels of solar 
activity are expected for the next 3 UT days (1-3 March). No 
earthward directed CME was observed in the available LASCO imagery. 
The solar wind speed varied in the range 390-440 km/s. The IMF 
Bt and its Bz component stayed in the ranges 4-9 nT and +5/-5 
nT, respectively. During the next 24 h the solar wind speed is 
expected to increase due to a negative polarity recurrent coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21112122
      Cocos Island         3   10111221
      Darwin               4   21111122
      Townsville           5   21112122
      Learmonth            5   20112222
      Alice Springs        4   11112122
      Norfolk Island       4   21112022
      Culgoora             5   21112122
      Gingin               7   21111332
      Canberra             3   11002121
      Launceston           6   21112232
      Hobart               5   21112122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     5   11113122
      Casey               12   33432222
      Mawson              23   54222354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1111 1132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar    23    Active to Minor Storm
02 Mar    18    Active
03 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 27 February 
and is current for 28 Feb to 2 Mar. Geomagnetic activity was 
at quiet levels across the Australian region on UT day 28 February. 
Activity is expected to gradually increase to active levels on 
1 March due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from 
a negative polarity recurrent coronal hole. This coronal hole 
effect may keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced to unsettled 
to active levels with the possibility of minor storm periods 
on 1-3 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
02 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
UT day 28 February. Degradations in HF conditions are expected 
on 1-3 March due to increased geomagnetic activity. Minor to 
moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are 
likely during the next three UT days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Feb    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      0
Feb      18
Mar      16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
02 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
03 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 16 was issued 
on 28 February and is current for 28 Feb to 2 Mar. MUFs were 
mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian regions 
during UT day 28 February. Minor to moderate MUF depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions are likely during 1-3 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:    32000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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