[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 30 09:30:28 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed declined gradually over the UT day, from
460 km/s to be 380 km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed mostly close to the
normal value, but turned south up to ~5 nT between 0300 UT and
0800 UT. Solar wind speed is expected to be mildly enhanced on
30 June due to the influence of a small positive polarity coronal
hole. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days
with a small chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12210001
Cocos Island 2 11210000
Darwin 2 02210001
Townsville 2 12210001
Learmonth 3 02220001
Alice Springs 2 02210001
Norfolk Island 3 22210000
Gingin 2 01210001
Camden 2 12210001
Canberra 1 01110000
Launceston 3 12220002
Hobart 2 01210001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 01130001
Casey 5 23220011
Mawson 16 22441144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1212 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 6 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 4 Quiet
02 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the last 24 hours.
Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected
for the next three days (30 June to 2 July) with some possibility
of unsettled periods on 30 June due to the influence of a small
positive polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were mostly near predicted monthly values
over the last 24 hours. Notable enhancements were observed for
some high latitude regions. Mostly normal MUFs and HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days (30 June to 2 July).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were mostly near predicted monthly values
over the last 24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Notable enhancements
were observed for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Mostly normal MUFs
and HF conditions may be expected for the next three days (30
June to 2 July) in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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