[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 June 17 issued 2339 UT on 16 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 17 09:39:42 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 16 June,
with no notable flares. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next 3 UT days (17-19 June) with a chance of
C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed picked up ~0750UT due to
the onset of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole, currently
~~580 km/s. The total IMF, Bt and Bz reached 16 nT and -13 nT,
respectively. There were a few prolonged periods with negative
Bz. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
the next two days due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 15 12325333
Darwin 12 12324323
Townsville 14 12334333
Learmonth 20 22435334
Alice Springs 14 12325323
Culgoora 13 12324333
Gingin 17 12325334
Camden 15 12325333
Canberra 10 01224323
Launceston 19 12335434
Hobart 16 01325433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Macquarie Island 26 00456433
Casey 14 13334233
Mawson 43 13444467
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 15 Quiet to Active
18 Jun 12 Quiet to Active
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased from Quiet to Active
levels across the Australian region with one isolated period
of Minor Storming ~1200UT associated with the onset of a recurrent
negative polarity coronal hole. Mostly Quiet to Active conditions
are expected for the UT days 17-18 June in response to the coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF condition in the high-latitude regions may
be observed due to expected increase in the geomagnetic activity
over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day 16 June. Periods of Spread F
continued at some locations. Expect similar MUF conditions for
the next two UT days, and a possibility of Minor depressions
for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic
activity from coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 182000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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