[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 11 09:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 10 June,
with no notable flares. Very low levels of solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days (11-13 June) with a chance of
C-class flares. An approximately 10 degree long disappearing
solar filament was observed starting at 10/0636 UT centered near
03N24W. At the time of writing this report, appropriate LASCO
imagery data were unavailable to determine if this event has
triggered an earth-directed CME. The solar wind speed was near
its nominal level, gradually decreasing from 300 km/s to 275
km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bt was in the range 3-5
nT during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF varied between
+4 nT and -2 nT, with no significant periods of southward Bz
conditions. The two day outlook (11-12 June) is for the solar
winds to continue to trend near the nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Darwin 1 12100000
Townsville 2 12100001
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Culgoora 0 11000000
Gingin 0 01100000
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 11000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 12100000
Mawson 8 42110104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 3 2101 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 5 Quiet
12 Jun 5 Quiet
13 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were again at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 10 June. Mostly quiet
and occasional unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days
11-12 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 11-13 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day 10 June. Expect similar conditions
for the next three UT days, 11-13 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 10100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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