[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 6 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on the UT day, 5 June, with
only C-class flares. The largest flare, C2.7, peaked at 05/0531
UT was produced by Active Region 2661 (now at N06E15).Expect
Low solar activity with some chance of C-class flares for the
next 3 UT days, 6-8 June, due to the flaring potential of Region
2661. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
imagery up to 05/1800 UT. During the UT day, 5 June, the solar
wind speed was near the background levels of 375 km/s. Over the
last 24 hours, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field B total and
its Bz component varied in the range 5-7 nT and +6/-5 nT, respectively.
The two day outlook (6-7 June) is for the solar winds to remain
near the background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 01112101
Cocos Island 1 01101101
Darwin 3 12102111
Townsville 4 12212111
Learmonth 2 01102101
Alice Springs 3 02112101
Culgoora 2 01112100
Gingin 2 11012001
Camden 3 12112100
Canberra 1 01002000
Launceston 2 12012000
Hobart 1 01002000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00022000
Casey 4 12211111
Mawson 6 13212103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1100 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 7 Quiet
07 Jun 7 Quiet
08 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: In the Australian region geomagnetic activity was quiet
over the UT day, 5 June. The two day outlook (6-7 June) is for
the geomagnetic activity to remain mostly at quiet levels and
occasionally may reach unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted HF conditions and MUFs
are expected for today, 6 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day 5 June, with minor depression
over the Northern Australian region during local day. Expect
mostly near predicted monthly MUFs during the next three UT days,
6-8 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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