[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 31 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 30 July,
with no flares. Mostly low levels of solar activity are expected
for next three day (31 July - 2 Aug) due to returning active
region 2655, which is expected to produce C-class flares and
with a remote chance of M-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery for the UT day,
30 July. The solar wind speed continued to decline toward nominal
levels during the UT day, dropping from 425 km/s at the beginning
of the UT day to 325 km/s by the end of the UT day. The IMF Bt
was mostly steady near 4-5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF varied in the range -4/+4 nT. The two day (31 July
- 1 Aug) outlook is for the solar winds to increase again as
another recurrent equatorial coronal hole has reached geoeffective
location on the solar disk. The size of approaching coronal hole
is larger compared to its size in the previous rotation. Thus
a stronger effect is expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Darwin 1 01100010
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 1 11100010
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Norfolk Island 1 12000000
Gingin 0 10000010
Camden 1 01111000
Canberra 0 00-00000
Launceston 1 01111010
Hobart 0 00101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 4 22221110
Mawson 13 43121243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 30 July and
is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. Magnetic conditions were quiet
across the Australian region during the UT day, 30 July. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions and at times reaching active levels
are expected for 31 July. These forecasted disturbed conditions
are due to the anticipated arrival of the corotating interaction
region associated with a recurrent equatorial coronal hole. On
UT day 1 Aug, geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
unsettled during the passage of subsequent high speed solar wind
streams associated with the coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression
were observed in the mid and high latitude regions of the Northern
Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected to today, 31 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 12 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. HF conditions
in this region are expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted
values during the next three UT days (31 July - 2 Aug).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 236000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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