[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 12 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2665 (S06W03) produced several B-class and a C1.2 X-ray flare.
The C1.2 flare peaked at 2031 UT. No Earthward bound CMEs were
observed from the LASCO C2 imagery up to 11/2200 UT. The solar
wind speed increased from 570 km/s to 680 km/s by ~0700 UT and
then gradually decreased to around 550 by 2300 UT. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz stayed positive
up to around 7 nT by 0330 UT and then showed a sudden drop to
-2 nT. Bt also showed a sudden drop from 8 nT to 4 nT at this
time, whereas the solar wind speed suddenly rose from 590 to
670 at this time. Bz stayed mostly between +/-3 nT during rest
of the day. Expect the solar wind to gradually decrease over
the next two days due to the influence of a geoeffective equatorial
positive polarity coronal hole waning away. Low levels of solar
activity with some possibility of isolated M-class event may
be expected for the next 3 days (12, 13 and 14 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 13212210
Darwin 4 22211110
Townsville 7 23222211
Learmonth 6 23212210
Alice Springs 5 13212210
Norfolk Island 4 22311100
Gingin 6 13212220
Camden 6 12322211
Canberra 2 02211100
Launceston 7 13322211
Hobart 6 12322211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 12313110
Casey 12 23322432
Mawson 25 35542215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3421 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul 6 Quiet
14 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions have been observed during
the last 24 hours in the Australian region due to high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole. Geomagnetic conditions may be expected to gradually decline
from Unsettled to Quiet levels over the next 24 hours
(12 July UT day) and then stay at Quiet levels for the following two
days (13 and 14 July).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values
with some minor depression periods in some low latitude regions
and minor to mild enhancements in some high latitude regions
on 11 July. Expect MUFs to remain near predicted monthly values
for the next three days (12 to 14 July) with the possibility
of some enhancements on 13 and 14 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 22 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%
14 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15
to 30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 9
July and is current for 10-12 Jul. In Australian regions observed
MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with some minor
depression periods in the Northern regions and minor to mild
enhancements in the Southern regions on 11 July. Expect MUFs
in Australian/NZ regions to remain near predicted monthly values
for the next three days (12 to 14 July) with the possibility
of some enhancements on 13 and 14 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 566 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 286000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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