[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 9 09:30:18 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
several B-class flares from active region 2665 (S08E45) the only 
sunspot group on the visible disc. Noise storm in progress on 
245 MHz. Expect Low solar activity for the next three days with 
a slight chance for M-class flares. No Earthward bound CMEs observed 
from LASCO C2 imagery up to 08/1712UT. The solar wind speed ranged 
from 380km/s to 315km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently 
360km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz ranged from +3/-6 nT during this same period and Btotal 
varied between 2 to 6 nT. Expect the solar wind to gradually 
increase to strong levels due to the influence of a geoeffective 
equatorial positive polarity recurrent coronal hole and associated 
high speed stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         3   111-----
      Darwin               0   01100000
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Alice Springs        1   11100000
      Norfolk Island       1   11100001
      Gingin               1   01100020
      Camden               1   11100010
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   10100010
      Hobart               0   10000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   22200011
      Mawson               5   32100023

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   3200 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul    20    Active
10 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 7 July and 
is current for 8-9 Jul. Quiet conditions observed during the 
last 24 hours in the Australian region. Expect geomagnetic activity 
to increase to Unsettled to Active levels with isolated periods 
of Minor Storm levels today due to high speed solar wind stream 
becoming geoeffective. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions are 
expected to prevail over the following two days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect possible degraded HF communication at high latitudes 
on 9-10 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jul    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Expect near predicted 
monthly values for the next three days, however possible degraded 
HF communication at higher latitudes on 9-10 July. Noted spread 
F in the Australian region during local night time hours and 
isolated pockets of sporadic E during the UT day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   145000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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