[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 July 17 issued 2353 UT on 01 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 2 09:53:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery.
Region 2664 (N18W70) is currently the only region on the visible
disc and remains stable and quiet. The solar wind speed ranged
between 336km/s and 396km/s between 00UT and 16UT. At 1628UT
a small shock was observed in the solar wind parameters with
step increases to solar wind speed, density and temperature.
Solar wind speed is currently ranging between 380km/s and 440km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached
a maximum of -9.1nT at 0926UT after notable sustained southward
excursions between 02UT-07UT and 12UT and 14UT of approx -6nT.
The source of the shock in the solar wind is yet to be determined
as from the estimated velocity (and arrival time) of the slow
moving partial halo from 28Jun was expected to arrive late in
the UT day 02Jul. Btotal has ranged between 11nT and 19nT since
the shock was detected but with no southward Bz component so
far. A further increase in solar wind velocity is possible over
the next 24-48 hours. Very Low solar activity is expected for
the next 3 days with a small chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 12222220
Cocos Island 6 12122230
Darwin 6 12222221
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 6 02222321
Alice Springs 5 12222220
Norfolk Island 4 12211211
Gingin 7 02222330
Camden 5 12221221
Canberra 3 01211210
Launceston 7 12322320
Hobart 5 12212220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 02213320
Casey 33 22232761
Mawson 21 35432442
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 25 Active
03 Jul 18 Active
04 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions expected for the beginning of the UT day 02Jul with
possible Active to Minor Storm periods due to CME effects. Possible
Active periods 03Jul with otherwise Quiet to Unsettled conditions.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 04Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were mostly near predicted monthly values
over the last 24 hours with some depressed MUFs for low latitudes.
Depressed MUFs likely for for mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric
support for high latitudes over the next 3 days due to increased
geomagnetic activity 02Jul-03Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 9
Aug 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
over the last 24 hours with slight depressions during local day
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions and slight enhancements for
Southern AUS/NZ regions. Depressed MUF's possible for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support Antarctic regions
02Jul-04Jul due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 27200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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