[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 February 17 issued 2313 UT on 15 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 16 10:13:57 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 15 February. There were only two weak B-class flares from
Region 2636, which has just rotated onto the visible solar disk
from the east limb. There are currently three numbered sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. Very low levels of solar activity
is expected for the next 3 days (16-18 February) with a slight
chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in available LASCO imagery on UT day 15 February. The solar wind
speeds continued to trend near the nominal levels of ~300 km/s
throughout the UT day. The IMF Bt were mostly steady around 5
nT during the UT day. The Bz component varied between -3 nT and
+3 nT. The three day outlook (16-18 February) is for the solar
winds to enhance gradually to moderate levels in response to
a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole now taking geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 10111120
Cocos Island 2 11101120
Darwin 2 00111121
Townsville 4 11112121
Learmonth 2 00011220
Alice Springs 3 11111121
Norfolk Island 1 10001011
Culgoora 2 10111110
Gingin 2 00111120
Camden 2 10111111
Canberra 0 00001010
Launceston 2 01111120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 8 24311121
Mawson 5 22112122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb 16 Active
18 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic activity were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region on UT day 15 February. The outlook for
today 16 February is for the geomagnetic conditions to reach
unsettled levels in response to the anticipated arrival of co-rotating
interaction region associated with the coronal hole. On UT day
17 February, geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
between unsettled and active levels due to high speed solar wind
streams expected to emanate from the coronal hole. There is some
chance that auroras may be visible on the local night of 17 February
in Tasmania and possibly from the coastline of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels
across all regions on UT day 15 February. Sightly improved MUF
conditions are expected for today, 16 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels with
sporadic minor depressions scattered across the Australian regions
during UT day 15 February. The outlook for today (16 February)
is for a slightly improved MUF conditions as the approaching
coronal hole effects are expected to further enhance ionisation
levels on the first day of storming. This is usually followed
by storm-associated depressions on the subsequent days, possibly
beginning from 17 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 12.2 p/cc Temp: 12700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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