[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 31 10:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 30 December,
with no flares. There is currently one numbered solar region
on the visible disk, region 2692, which will soon rotate to the
far side of the sun. Very low levels of solar flare activity
is expected for the next three days (31 Dec - 2 Jan), with a
very weak chance of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 30
Dec. The solar wind speed during UT day 30 December was near
the nominal level of 375 km/s. During the UT day 30 December,
the IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated
between -3 nT and +2 nT. The outlook for most part of today (31
Dec) is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly near the background
level. From late 31 Dec or thereabout, the solar wind is expected
to enhance again as a recurrent positive polarity Northern Hemisphere
coronal hole reaches geoeffective location on the solar disk.
During the previous rotation this coronal hole produced winds
in excess of 500 km/s for three consecutive days at earth. Similar
effects are expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 2 11110101
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 3 10111112
Alice Springs 2 10101111
Gingin 2 10101112
Camden 3 11211111
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 3 11211111
Hobart 2 11101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 13 33521222
Mawson 15 23212245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 25 Active
02 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 30 December. Today 31
Dec, magnetic conditions could reach unsettled to active levels
due to the corotation interaction region (CIR) effect associated
with a recurrent positive polarity Northern Hemisphere coronal
hole soon reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk. On
1 Jan, active to minor storm conditions are possible associated
with high speed stream from the coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted HF conditions are expected
over most regions for today, 31 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 30 December. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were still evident over some Australian
ionosonde sites. The outlook for today (31 Dec) is for MUFs to
be mostly near monthly predicted levels. Minor to moderate MUF
depression are expected on 01-02 Jan in response to the forecasted
active magnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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