[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 August 17 issued 2346 UT on 20 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Aug 21 09:46:22 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0153UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours. 
New region 2672 (N10E78) was the source an M1.1 flare at 0152 
as well as a C9.4 event at 1939UT. Region 2671 also produced 
some minor C-class events. Regions 2671 and 2672 are the only 
active regions on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available LASCO imagery over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed remains elevated due to the influence of a recurrent 
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream and its average speed 
ranged from ~775km/s at 00UT to be 650km/s at the time of this 
report. The north-south component of IMF, Bz fluctuated between 
-4nT and +3nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to 
begin to decline over the next 24-48 hours due to waning influence 
of the coronal hole. Low to Moderate solar activity is expected 
over the next three days with further C-class events possible 
and the chance of M-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33332322
      Cocos Island         7   22221321
      Darwin              10   33322312
      Townsville          11   33322322
      Learmonth           12   33332322
      Alice Springs       11   33322322
      Norfolk Island       9   33321221
      Culgoora            11   33322322
      Gingin              15   33333432
      Camden              12   33332322
      Canberra            10   33322321
      Launceston          18   43442422
      Hobart              12   33332322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    20   33454322
      Casey               28   44422562
      Mawson              62   66544575
      Davis               48   46443665

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             28   4554 4434     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
22 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly Unsettled 
with possible Active periods for 21Aug while solar wind speed 
remains elevated due to coronal hole effects. By 22Aug Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions are expected due to the diminishing influence 
of the coronal hole and mostly Quiet conditions for 23Aug.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions over the last 24 hours with minor 
MUF enhancements and depressions for Low to Mid latitudes. Disturbed 
conditions for High latitudes. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Aug    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      10
Aug      6
Sep      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 19 
August and is current for 20-21 Aug. Maximum User Frequencies 
were near predicted monthly values over the last 24 hours. Minor 
MUF enhancements and depressions for Northern AUS to Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 717 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:   727000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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