[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Apr 20 09:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 April.
The long duration flare C5.5 peaking at 18/2010 UT was produced
by an active region 2651. The flare was accompanied by a CME,
which was first visible at 18/1948 UT and is not expected to
be geoeffective. Expect Very Low to Moderate solar activity over
the next three days. The solar wind speed increased from 360
km/s to 470 km/s, the first maximum was observed at 19/0330 UT.
The IMF Bt increased from 9 nT to 16 nT, with Bz varying in the
range +12/-11 nT. The Bz was predominately negative from 0000
UT to 0330 UT. During the next UT day expect enhanced solar wind
speed due to the coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 23210222
Cocos Island 6 22210232
Darwin 7 33210221
Learmonth 10 33320232
Alice Springs 8 23320222
Norfolk Island 6 23310111
Culgoora 6 23210222
Gingin 8 33210232
Camden 6 23210221
Canberra 3 12210111
Launceston 8 23321222
Hobart 6 23210122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 25330111
Casey 15 43331134
Mawson 22 34522335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1011 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
21 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 18 April and
is current for 19-20 Apr. Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region during the UT day, 19 April. Minor
storm levels were reached in the Antarctic region. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to decrease gradually to Quiet levels during
the next 3 UT days as the coronal hole effect wane. Isolated
Active periods are possible on 20 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region with periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions possible,
particularly over the southern areas of the Australian region
for the next UT day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
21 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
22 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: During the local day, 19 April, mostly near predicted
MUFs were observed over the Australian region. Mildly depressed
MUFs were also observed in the Northern Australian region during
local day. Near predicted MUFs to Moderately depressed MUFs are
expected for the next UT day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 12.7 p/cc Temp: 18300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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