[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 07 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 8 09:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 07 September.
Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next three
days with a slight chance of an M-class flare which can be produced
by AR2585 (now at N08W24). No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. During the first half of the
UT day of 07 September the solar wind speed was slowly decreasing
from 510 km/s to 460 km/s, then it was varying in the range 460-490
km/s, currently around 480 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated above nominal levels during the next 24 hours.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between -5/+4 nT during the last 24 hours with Bt varying between
3 nT and 5 nT and is currently 4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22133320
Cocos Island 6 22122310
Darwin 8 22123321
Townsville 9 22133321
Learmonth 8 22133320
Alice Springs 8 22123321
Norfolk Island 5 22022220
Gingin 9 22133330
Camden 9 22133321
Canberra 7 22023320
Launceston 13 23134421
Hobart 9 12134320
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie Island 17 12145510
Casey 16 44423321
Mawson 23 64423322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 78 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3332 2242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 10 Quiet
10 Sep 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
over Australia for the UT day, 07 September. In the Antarctic
region isolated Active to Minor Storm periods were also observed.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled
with possible isolated Active periods at higher latitudes for
the next day due to an elevated solar wind speed. Quiet conditions
are expected over Australia for 09-10 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected. Mild depressions
may be observed today due to minor geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
09 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
10 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly MUFs to mild depressions were
observed in the Australian region during the UT day, 07 September.
Mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
be observed in the Australian/NZ regions during the next day.
Then a gradual return to the predicted MUFs on day two and three,
09-10 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 454000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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