[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 November 16 issued 2348 UT on 08 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 9 10:48:48 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed declined from 312km/s at 00UT to 275km/s
at 16UT and is currently 286km/s at the time of this report.
The Bz component of the IMF has ranged between +/-5nT over the
UT day, with a notable sustained southward period between 07UT-11UT.
Solar wind speed is expected to gradually increase over the next
24-48 hours due to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream
from a southern hemisphere located negative polarity coronal
hole. There is also still a chance in the next 12 hours of a
CME glancing blow from the filament that lifted off towards the
northwest quadrant on 05Nov. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next three days little chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 10012011
Cocos Island 1 00011001
Darwin 2 10011012
Townsville 3 11112111
Learmonth 2 00012002
Alice Springs 1 00012001
Norfolk Island 1 10001001
Gingin 2 11012001
Camden 2 10012111
Canberra 0 00002000
Launceston 4 21013111
Hobart 3 00012122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 00014000
Casey 9 23432011
Mawson 8 31112114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 35 Active to Minor Storm
10 Nov 20 Active
11 Nov 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. On
09Nov the solar wind speed is expected to gradually increase
due to the onset of a high speed solar wind stream from a southern
hemisphere located negative polarity coronal hole resulting in
Active to Minor Storm periods for 09Nov-10Nov with Unsettled
conditions expected for 11Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from brief enhancements at high and mid latitudes to sustained
depressions for mid to low latitudes. An expected increase in
geomagnetic activity is forecast for 09Nov-10Nov due to coronal
hole effects resulting in periods of depressed MUFs for mid latitudes
and disturbed conditions for high latitudes for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Nov -15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 Nov -10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 52 was issued
on 6 November and is current for 8-9 Nov. Observed MUF's were
at predicted monthly values over the last 24 hours for Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions, with notable depressed periods
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. An expected increase in
geomagnetic activity over 09Nov-10Nov due to coronal hole effects
is expected to result in MUF depressions of ~20% for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions, possible periods of enhanced
MUFs for low latitude stations and disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 15500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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