[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 19 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 20 09:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: None.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was very low during 19 May
UT. No significant flares were recorded. Solar flare activity
is expected to be very low with a fair chance of a C class flare
during the next 3 days. The background X ray flux has declined
to low B levels. Coronal Hole (CH) 735 spans the solar equator
and connects to a large Northern polar coronal hole. CH 735 has
rotated into a geoeffective location. A frontal disturbance ahead
of fast wind emanating from CH 735 may impact Earth today, 20
May. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
was about 5 nT for most of 19 May. However, a minor solar wind
discontinuity arrived at 11 UT and the magnitude of the IMF started
to increase during 16 UT. The magnitude of the IMF is currently
IMF 8 nT and the southward component, Bz, is northward. The solar
wind speed is currently about 430 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11222220
Cocos Island 3 11112110
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 21222221
Learmonth 6 22222221
Alice Springs 5 11222220
Norfolk Island 5 21322110
Gingin 5 21222120
Camden 6 12322220
Canberra 6 11322220
Melbourne 7 11323220
Launceston 9 22323222
Hobart 7 11323220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 11 11444110
Casey 8 23312221
Mawson 14 23343331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 9 2423 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 18 Active
21 May 14 Unsettled to Active
22 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet throughout the Australian
region during 19 May UT. Global conditions were quiet to unsettled.
The maximum Kp value was 3. Conditions may reach active levels
today, 20 May, due to the impact of fast wind emanating from
CH 735. A minor geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) may occur depending
on the strength of the solar wind disturbance.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed in both Hemispheres today, 20 May UT.
They may become more depressed on 21 May if a minor
geomagnetic storm occurs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 30 5 to 25% below predicted monthly values
21 May 20 10 to 35% below predicted monthly values
22 May 30 5 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 19 May UT.
Strong spread F conditions occurred at Hobart, Canberra, Brisbane
and Darwin last night AEST. Strong sporadic E layers occurred
above Darwin during the afternoon and evening of 19 May AEST.
Conditions are expected to remain mildly depressed again today,
20 May UT. Conditions will become more depressed if a minor
geomagnetic storm occurs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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