[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 17 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 18 09:30:37 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Low
Flares: C class flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 108/58
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 17 May UT. Active
Region 2542 is located beyond the western limb and produced the
largest flare of the day, a C1.2 event peaking at 04:08 UT. Weak
C class flare(s) may occur today. The strong CME launched toward
the west on 15 May may glance Earth late today, 18 May. Coronal
Hole (CH) 735 spans the solar equator and is rotating across
the solar meridian. A frontal disturbance ahead of fast wind
emanating from CH 735 is expected to impact Earth during 20-21
May. The magnitude of the IMF varied between about 4 nT and 7
nT and Bz fluctuated between about -6 nT and +5 nT during 17
May. The solar wind speed is currently about 500 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 9 12333221
Cocos Island 6 11223221
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 10 12333321
Learmonth 13 12334332
Alice Springs 10 12333322
Norfolk Island 9 12333221
Gingin 11 12333332
Camden 10 22333321
Canberra 9 12333221
Melbourne 12 22443221
Launceston 16 23444321
Hobart 12 22443221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
Macquarie Island 15 12453321
Casey 26 24433463
Mawson 26 34433355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 14 3433 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 15 Unsettled to Active
19 May 15 Unsettled to Active
20 May 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
17 May UT. Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled for
most of today, 18 May. However, they may reach active levels
late in the day if the CME glances Earth. The arrival of a frontal
disturbance ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 735 may drive
a minor storm (G1, Kp=5) during 20-21 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed to near normal in both Hemispheres today,
18 May UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced
at Cocos Island (preliminary T=64), near normal at Brisbane,
Sydney and Norfolk Island (T=41, 47 and 45), and mildly depressed
at Darwin and Hobart (T=28, 30) during 17 May UT. Strong spread
F conditions occurred at Hobart last night AEST. Conditions are
expected to be mildly depressed to near normal throughout the
Australian region today, 18 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 163000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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