[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 16 issued 2336 UT on 02 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 3 09:36:12 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels during the last 24
hours. Today's largest event was a C3.5 flare from region 2540(N22E24).
This flare peaked at 0842 and was associated with a Type II radio
burst and a non-earthward directed CME. Solar wind stream is
going strong. Solar wind speed increased from 450 to nearly 570
km/s today. The Bz component of IMF varied between +6/-8 nT during
most parts of the UT day today, staying southwards for longer
periods of time. Solar activity may be expected to stay very
low on 3 May with some possibility of isolated C-class activity
on this day, and at low levels on 4 and 5 May. Solar wind stream
may stay strong on 3 May and is expected to gradually weaken
thereafter.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Active,
isolated minor storm periods observed on high latitudes
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 15 33233343
Cocos Island 13 33123342
Darwin 14 33123343
Townsville 17 34233343
Learmonth 20 34234443
Alice Springs 14 33223343
Norfolk Island 12 33232233
Gingin 17 33224443
Camden 17 34234333
Canberra - --------
Launceston 18 33334343
Hobart 15 33234333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 35 35355553
Casey 17 44323333
Mawson 60 55444477
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 17 3322 3453
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 12 Quiet to Active
04 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
05 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Sustained periods of negative Bz and strong solar wind
stream resulted in geomagnetic activity rising to Active levels,
with isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes, on 2 May.
Solar wind stream is still going strong. Quiet to Active levels
of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 3 May with the possibility
of a gradual decline in the activity levels through the following
two days (4 and 5 May).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 2 May with some
periods of minor to mild depressions. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected on 3 May. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
on 4 and 5 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
04 May 50 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Aus/NZ regions
on 2 May with some periods of minor to mild depressions. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected on 3 May. Mostly normal HF
conditions are expected on 4 and 5 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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