[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 16 issued 2339 UT on 11 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 12 10:39:07 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next
3 days. The IMF Bz reached -25 nT between 09UT-13UT and fluctuated
between +/-13nT during this time likely due to transiting CME
effects. After significant fluctuations, IMF Bz has settled back
to +/-5 nT. Solar wind speed steadily increased to ~450km/s between
04UT-19UT then increased to 600 Km/s and remained around this
value at the time of this report. The increase in solar wind
speed is attributed to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR)
ahead of the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next two days
due to the effects of a small coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 11/1840UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 19 13345333
Cocos Island 16 13245232
Darwin 17 23345232
Townsville 22 13346233
Learmonth 26 23356333
Norfolk Island 17 13345232
Culgoora 18 13345233
Gingin 18 23245333
Camden 19 13345333
Canberra 19 13345333
Launceston 20 14345333
Hobart 18 13345323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 22 13346422
Casey 20 34435133
Mawson 26 43435335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2222 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 16 Quiet to Active.
13 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A weak (14nT) impulse was observed at 0534UTIn in the
SWS magnetometer data. Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed
over the last 24 hours due to CIR/CME effects. Quiet to unsettled
conditions expected for 12-14 Mar with possible Active periods
on day one, 12 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed
over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed on 11 March. Minor
degradations in HF conditions may be observed on 12-13 March
in response of elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 38600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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