[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 16 issued 2336 UT on 06 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 7 09:36:24 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 6 June, with no flares. There are currently no active regions
on the visible solar disc. The two day outlook (7-8 June) is
for solar activity to remain at very low levels with no flaring
expected. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery. The solar wind speeds were greater than 500 km/s during
the past 24 hours, with peak speed of 700 km/s at ~06/0400 UT.
The enhanced solar winds are due to effects of high speed streams
from the passage of the equatorial coronal hole. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT during the past 24 hours.
Bt peaked to 10 nT at beginning of the UT day and thereafter
showed a gradual declining trend. The current IMF magnitude is
near 5 nT. The outlook for next two days (7-8 June) is for the
solar winds to gradually trend towards background levels as the
effects on the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 18 34353321
Cocos Island 10 33332221
Darwin 14 34343221
Townsville 21 35353322
Learmonth 19 34353332
Alice Springs 18 34353321
Norfolk Island 19 35353211
Gingin 19 33354332
Camden 20 35353321
Canberra 18 34353321
Melbourne 23 34364321
Launceston 26 35364322
Hobart 18 34353321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
Macquarie Island 41 36474431
Casey 14 33343322
Mawson 63 66654474
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 27 2224 4465
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 17 Initially active, then becoming mostly quiet
to unsettled
08 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm levels
(G2) with Kp of 6 between 06/0300 UT and 06/0600 UT. The Australian
Dst index dipped to about -100 nT at 06/0600 UT. These active
conditions were caused by the passage of a coronal hole high
speed stream. The outlook for 7 June is for active to unsettled
conditions to continue during first half of UT day. Later, conditions
are expected to trend to mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Mostly
quiet and at times unsettled conditions are expected on UT day
8 and 9 June as the effects of the coronal hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strongly depressed MUF periods were observed over most
of the Northern Hemisphere region over the last 24 hours (6 June).
Similar conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours
in the Northern Hemisphere. Weak depression are expected in the
Southern Hemisphere on 7 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 34 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 38 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 44 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During the past 24 hours (06 June) weak MUF depressions
were observed during the local night over the Equatorial and
Northern Australian regions and slightly stronger depression
over the Southern Australian region. Slightly enhanced MUF depression
are expected on 07 June for Middle and Southern Australian regions.
These degradation in HF conditions are a result of ionisations
losses associated with the 5th June geomagnetic storm.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 11.4 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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