[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 July 16 issued 2353 UT on 25 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 26 09:53:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with active
region 2567 (located on the west limb) the source of a C1.8 flare
at 0909UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
SOHO LASCO imagery. The solar wind has been influenced by minor
coronal hole effects over the last 2 days. Solar wind velocity
ranged between 400-500km/s between 00UT and 17UT, declining to
be ~390km/s at the time of this report. Bz underwent a sustained
southward period of -4nT between 00UT-14UT and is currently fluctuating
between +/-2nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at these
levels over the next 3 days as recent coronal hole influence
diminishes. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low
for 26July-28July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 15 33344222
Cocos Island 9 33223211
Darwin 14 33344211
Townsville 17 33444322
Learmonth 16 23345222
Alice Springs 15 33344222
Norfolk Island 14 33443211
Culgoora 12 32334222
Gingin 17 32345223
Canberra 19 33454222
Launceston 25 33555322
Hobart 21 33455222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
Macquarie Island 54 24776422
Casey 10 32332222
Mawson 45 65433366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 3111 2454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
27 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours due to coronal hole effects. Unsettled to Active conditions
expected for 26Jul, Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 27-28Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
27 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mostly
normal for low to mid latitudes with occasional slight enhancements.
Depressed to disturbed ionospheric conditions for high latitudes.
Conditions are expected to be mostly normal for mid to low latitudes,
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Notable depressed periods for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal conditions for
Southern AUS and NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days with improving ionospheric support for Northern AUS
and Equatorial regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 59500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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