[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 23 09:30:22 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 0/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 0/0 0/0 0/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during 22 July. Three C-class
flares were produced by active region 2567. The largest flare
is C6.6 peaking at 0651 UT. A 20-degree long disappearing filament
was observed in the vicinity of N24E58. The CMEs detected on
20 July do not seem to be geoeffective. No Earth-directed CMEs
were found in the available SOHO LASCO imagery. Solar activity
is expected to be Low to Moderate during the next 3 UT days,
23-25 July, due to a chance that AR 2565 and AR 2567 will produce
relatively weak M-class flares. During 22 July the interplanetary
magnetic field Bt varied in the range 6-9 nT. Its Bz component
was in the range from -7 nT to 8 nT, being predominantly negative
since 0325 UT to 1750 UT. The sector boundary was crossed between
1500 UT and 1720 UT. The solar wind speed varied in the range
370-460 km/s. During the next UT day, 23 July, the solar wind
speed is expected to be light to moderate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 11222221
Cocos Island 5 11212221
Darwin 5 12122221
Townsville 6 12222221
Learmonth 6 11221231
Alice Springs 5 02221221
Norfolk Island 4 21121121
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 7 11222331
Canberra 5 11222221
Launceston 7 11222331
Hobart 5 10122231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 11 00134431
Casey 10 33322222
Mawson 20 33333453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1001 1312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jul 7 Quiet
25 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: During 22 July geomagnetic conditions were quiet in
the Australian region and reached Active to Minor storm levels
in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet
to unsettled during 23 July due to waning coronal hole effects
and quiet during 24-25 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 21 July UT.
Regional depressions are persisting. Sometimes strong depressions
were observed predominately in the northern hemisphere. Conditions
are expected to be mildly depressed to near normal during the
next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
24 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
25 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 22 July
UT. Conditions are expected to be mostly normal or mildly depressed
during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 36900 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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