[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 5 09:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease
from 450 km/s to 400 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied
mostly between +/-4 nT during the UT day today (4 July). Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low levels over the next
three days (5, 6 and 7 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11220021
Cocos Island 2 11210020
Darwin 4 12310021
Townsville 4 21220021
Learmonth 5 12320021
Alice Springs 4 12220021
Norfolk Island 2 11210011
Gingin 6 12321031
Canberra 3 11220020
Melbourne 5 21231021
Launceston 5 21231021
Hobart 4 11231020
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00230000
Casey 9 33221132
Mawson 18 34322054
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3212 1323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 5 Quiet
07 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today (4
July). Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT
day 4 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days as no significant
solar activity is expected during this time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 20 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 20 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 20 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed over
the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions on UT day 4 July.
These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected in this region for the next 3 days as no significant
solar activity is expected during this time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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