[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 16 issued 2348 UT on 19 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 20 10:48:31 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest notable flare, a C2.7 flare at 2310UT possibly from region
2497 which has rotated off disk. For the two disappearing filaments
observed on 18Feb, one near region 2501 at 04UT-06UT and the
other in the southeast quadrant at ~22UT, LASCO imagery confirmed
there was no earthward directed CME. Solar wind speed gradually
reduced due to the declining influence of the recent coronal
hole high speed stream, from ~600km/s at 00UT to be ~530km/s
at the time of this report. The north south component of the
IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to decline to expected ambient levels over the next 24-48 hours.
Solar activity is expected to be Low to Very Low for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 22233332
Cocos Island 7 21123320
Darwin 10 22233322
Townsville 11 22233332
Learmonth 11 22233332
Norfolk Island 10 22232332
Culgoora 11 22233332
Canberra 9 22232322
Launceston 15 32333433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 21 23444531
Casey 23 45433433
Mawson 68 53444784
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 27 4535 3353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb 7 Quiet
22 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed for the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Declining geomagnetic activity
due to waning influence of the recent coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream resulting in Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 20Feb and Quiet conditions for 21Feb-22Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal-fair Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
21 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours with
occasional depressed periods for mid latitudes and disturbed
ionospheric support for high latitudes. Normal HF conditions
expected for low latitudes and slow ionospheric recovery with
occasional depressed periods for mid latitudes on 20Feb. Fair-Poor
ionospheric support for high latitudes due to recent geomagnetic
activity. Low solar activity is expected to delay ionospheric
recovery for mid to high latitude stations till 22Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to Fair ionospheric support observed over the
last 24 hours with occasional periods of depressed MUF's observed
for Southern AUS/NZ regions, enhancements for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions and disturbed conditions for some Antarctic stations.
Possible depressed MUF's during local day for Southern AU/NZ
regions, disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions and normal
to enhanced ionospheric support for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions
for 20Feb. Similar conditions for 21Feb with improved ionospheric
support for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions by 22Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 614 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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