[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 16 issued 2353 UT on 15 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 16 10:53:49 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    1100UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Very low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   108/58             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
region 2497 (currently N11W58) the source of an M1.1 flare at 
1100UT as well as numerous C-class flares. Confirmation of any 
earth directed CME from the M-class flare via SOHO LASCO imagery 
was not possible at the time of this report. Solar wind speed 
has steadily increased from ~370km/s at 00UT to be currently 
420km/s. An expected rise in the solar wind stream parameters 
is expected on 16Feb due to the combined effects of recent CME 
activity (11Feb C8.9 flare) and a large southward extended, southern 
hemisphere located coronal hole's high speed solar wind stream. 
The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-5 nT for the majority 
of the UT day. Since 19UT Bz has remained southward and is -7nT 
at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to be 
Low to Moderate with the possibility of more M-class flares. 
The 11 Feb CME associated with the long duration C8.9 flare is 
expected to arrive at Earth within the next 24 hrs (UT day 15 
Feb).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12322112
      Cocos Island         4   11221012
      Darwin               5   11222112
      Townsville           7   12322122
      Learmonth            6   11222113
      Norfolk Island       5   11321012
      Culgoora             7   12322113
      Canberra             5   02321012
      Launceston           9   12422113    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     6   02223212
      Casey               15   24532222
      Mawson              20   44432215

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1222 1321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb    22    Active
17 Feb    16    Active
18 Feb    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 13 February 
and is current for 14-16 Feb. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed 
over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Active conditions with possible 
Minor Storm periods for 16Feb possible due to CME and anticipated 
coronal hole effects. Quiet to Active conditions for 17Feb and 
Quiet to Unsettled for 18Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were near the predicted monthly values 
with notable enhancements for low latitudes. Depressed MUFs for 
high to possible mid latitude regions expected for 16Feb-18Feb 
due elevated geomagnetic activity over the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Feb    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb    45    Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb    45    Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued 
on 13 February and is current for 16-17 Feb. Observed MUF's were 
near predicted monthly values with enhanced MUFs observed for 
low latitude stations. Possible MUF depressions of -20% possible 
for high to mid latitudes due to expected geomagnetic activity 
on 16Feb-17Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    73200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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