[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 December 16 issued 2333 UT on 11 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 12 10:33:36 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 11 December, with no notable flares. Very Low activity is
expected for the next 3 days, 12-14 December. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 11 December.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 650 km/s to 560
km/s over the UT day 11 December in response to the waning effects
of a large recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole. The IMF
Bt were steady near 5 nT over the UT day. The Bz component varied
between -4 and +4 nT. The two day outlook (12-13 December) is
for the solar winds to continue to trend toward nominal levels
as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33232321
Cocos Island 8 22232320
Darwin 10 33232321
Townsville 11 33232322
Learmonth 12 33232421
Alice Springs 10 33232321
Norfolk Island 7 23221221
Gingin 10 32232420
Camden 11 33232322
Canberra 10 33232321
Launceston 11 33332321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 32244420
Casey 31 56543332
Mawson 38 46443562
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 4323 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 12 Unsettled
13 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The Earth is currently under the influence of moderate
to strong solar wind streams from the large recurrent southern
hemisphere coronal hole. Magnetic activity was quiet to unsettled
across the Australian region on UT day 11-Dec. The Australian
Dst dipped to a minimum of -40nT at ~11/0500UT, with few other
short-lived periods of moderately disturbed (-20 to -40 nT) Australian
Dst levels. These are associated with enhanced solar wind speeds
emanating from the coronal hole. The two day outlook (12-13 December)
is for the geomagnetic conditions to range mostly from quiet
to unsettled levels and occasionally may even reach active levels
as the solar winds trend toward background levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions occurred in the southern
hemisphere mid to high-latitude regions and at times depressions
extended into the low latitude regions. The MUF depressions in
the northern hemisphere were slightly weak compared to the southern
hemisphere, which is usual for this time of the year. Sightly
improved HF conditions are expected today, 12 December, as coronal
hole effects wane.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions occurred across most Australian
regions on UT day 11 December. These are due to loss in ionospheric
ionisations associated with the disturbed geomagnetic conditions
caused by the coronal hole. The two day outlook is for ionisation
levels to gradually recover as the disturbed conditions are expected
to diminish from today (12 December). HF support are expected
to return to near monthly predicted levels from late 13 December.
HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted
frequencies today, 12 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 665 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 248000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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