[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 December 16 issued 2338 UT on 09 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 10 10:38:37 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity on Dec 09 was Very Low with Very Low
activity expected for 10-12 December. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 09 December.
Solar wind speed remains elevated at 650-700 km/s under the influence
of a large southern hemisphere trans-equatorial coronal hole.
The IMF Bz component fluctuated to +/-8nT with a sustained period
of moderate southward bias to -5nT after 16UT. The present coronal
hole wind stream is expected to persist into Dec 11 declining
during Dec 12.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 16 32342343
Cocos Island 13 22233343
Darwin 11 22232333
Townsville 14 32243333
Learmonth 20 33243444
Alice Springs 14 32342333
Norfolk Island 10 22232233
Gingin 15 33332343
Camden 13 22342333
Canberra 15 22342343
Launceston 24 43443444
Hobart 18 33342443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 25 22454453
Casey 48 56654445
Mawson 46 34444476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 110 (Major storm)
Canberra 64 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 23 3523 2454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 20 Active
11 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 9 December
and is current for 10-11 Dec. The Earth is currently under the
influence of a moderate to strong coronal hole solar wind stream.
Observed regional geomagnetic conditions on Dec 09 were Quiet
to Active at low to mid latitudes with minor storm periods observed
at high latitudes. Following periods of sustained moderate negative
bias in the solar wind Bz component, the Australian Dst index
reached -30 at times over the UT day Dec 09. Expect similar conditions
days one and two of the forecast period with conditions declining
gradually by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed at low latitudes. Moderate
depressions occurred in southern hemisphere mid to high-latitude
regions. Similar HF conditions are expected 10-11 December, with
periods of disturbance at high latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night with periods of sporadic-E.
Periods of equatorial spread-F local day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Periods of equatorial spread-F.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Periods of strong sporadic-E after local dawn E Australian area
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Periods of disturbance due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on 7 December
and is current for 8-11 Dec. Variable ionospheric conditions
Equatorial/N Aus regions with moderate localised enhancements/depressions.
Periods of strong sporadic-E conditions observed at times S Aus
region mainly in the East after local dawn today. Generally moderately
depressed conditions observed S Aus to Antarctic regions. Expect
periods of disturbance S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions next 2 days
due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 571 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 281000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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