[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 16 issued 2347 UT on 07 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 8 10:47:22 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no notable flares. Very Low to Low activity is expected for the
next 2 days, 8-9 December. A 17 degree long disappearing solar
filament was observed, starting at 07/0953UT. This event seemed
to have triggered a CME, which was first observed at 07/1048
in LASCO C2 imagery. The possible impact of this CME on Earth
will be determined after the completion of our model runs. The
solar wind was ~330km/s for most of the UT day (7 Dec) but began
to enhance from 07/1830. It is currently ~540km/s. These enhancements
in solar wind speeds are due to the anticipated arrival of high
speed streams from a large recurrent southern hemisphere coronal
hole. The IMF total was steady near 5 nT up to 07/1200 UT and
thereon gradually increased to ~20 nT. This coincided with the
arrival of the co-rotation interaction region associated with
the coronal hole. The Bz component varied from -5 to +16 nT,
with a prolonged period of southward IMF Bz starting from 07/0300UT
to 07/100UT. Solar wind speed is likely to continue to increase
over the next 3 days, 8-10 December, as the coronal hole effects
are expected to persist. In the previous rotation, this coronal
hole caused solar wind speeds to be in excess of 500 km/s for
4 consecutive days. Similar effects are expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 11222333
Cocos Island 7 11112332
Darwin 10 11222433
Townsville 11 11322433
Learmonth 14 12223353
Alice Springs 10 11222433
Norfolk Island 9 11321333
Gingin 9 21222333
Camden 10 11322333
Canberra 10 11322333
Launceston 12 12322433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 16 11533432
Casey 19 44332244
Mawson 24 24234363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 0001 4202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 20 Active
09 Dec 25 Active
10 Dec 25 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 5 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. Magnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region on UT day 7-Dec. The Australian
Dst dipped to a minimum of -34nT at ~07/0900UT. This was due
to a prolonged period of southward Bz. Active periods with chance
of minor storms are expected for the next 3 UT days, 8-10 Dec.
This is in response to high speed solar wind streams emanating
from a large southern hemisphere coronal hole. Auroras may be
visible on the local nights of 8 and 9 December in Tasmania and
possibly the coastline of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
10 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels
over the mid- and low-latitude regions during UT day 7 December.
Minor depressions occurred in the high-latitude regions. Similar
HF conditions are expected today, 8 December, with the depressions
possibly extending into the mid- and low latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec -10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec -20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values in the mid-
and low-latitude regions of Australia on UT day 07 December.
Minor depressions were observed in the high-latitude Australian
regions. Over the next three days (08-10 December), the high
latitude depressions are expected to extend into the low latitude
regions as disturbed geomagnetic conditions persist. HF users
are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 35800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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