[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 16 issued 2347 UT on 07 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 8 10:47:22 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with 
no notable flares. Very Low to Low activity is expected for the 
next 2 days, 8-9 December. A 17 degree long disappearing solar 
filament was observed, starting at 07/0953UT. This event seemed 
to have triggered a CME, which was first observed at 07/1048 
in LASCO C2 imagery. The possible impact of this CME on Earth 
will be determined after the completion of our model runs. The 
solar wind was ~330km/s for most of the UT day (7 Dec) but began 
to enhance from 07/1830. It is currently ~540km/s. These enhancements 
in solar wind speeds are due to the anticipated arrival of high 
speed streams from a large recurrent southern hemisphere coronal 
hole. The IMF total was steady near 5 nT up to 07/1200 UT and 
thereon gradually increased to ~20 nT. This coincided with the 
arrival of the co-rotation interaction region associated with 
the coronal hole. The Bz component varied from -5 to +16 nT, 
with a prolonged period of southward IMF Bz starting from 07/0300UT 
to 07/100UT. Solar wind speed is likely to continue to increase 
over the next 3 days, 8-10 December, as the coronal hole effects 
are expected to persist. In the previous rotation, this coronal 
hole caused solar wind speeds to be in excess of 500 km/s for 
4 consecutive days. Similar effects are expected in this rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   11222333
      Cocos Island         7   11112332
      Darwin              10   11222433
      Townsville          11   11322433
      Learmonth           14   12223353
      Alice Springs       10   11222433
      Norfolk Island       9   11321333
      Gingin               9   21222333
      Camden              10   11322333
      Canberra            10   11322333
      Launceston          12   12322433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    16   11533432
      Casey               19   44332244
      Mawson              24   24234363

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   0001 4202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec    20    Active
09 Dec    25    Active
10 Dec    25    Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 5 December 
and is current for 7-9 Dec. Magnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled 
across the Australian region on UT day 7-Dec. The Australian 
Dst dipped to a minimum of -34nT at ~07/0900UT. This was due 
to a prolonged period of southward Bz. Active periods with chance 
of minor storms are expected for the next 3 UT days, 8-10 Dec. 
This is in response to high speed solar wind streams emanating 
from a large southern hemisphere coronal hole. Auroras may be 
visible on the local nights of 8 and 9 December in Tasmania and 
possibly the coastline of Victoria.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
10 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels 
over the mid- and low-latitude regions during UT day 7 December. 
Minor depressions occurred in the high-latitude regions. Similar 
HF conditions are expected today, 8 December, with the depressions 
possibly extending into the mid- and low latitude regions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Dec    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      24
Jan      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec     0    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec   -10    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec   -20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values in the mid- 
and low-latitude regions of Australia on UT day 07 December. 
Minor depressions were observed in the high-latitude Australian 
regions. Over the next three days (08-10 December), the high 
latitude depressions are expected to extend into the low latitude 
regions as disturbed geomagnetic conditions persist. HF users 
are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted frequencies.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:   11.2 p/cc  Temp:    35800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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