[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 28 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 29 09:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 425 to 375 km/s
during this time (UT day 28 August). The north-south component
of IMF, Bz varied mostly between +/-4 nT during this time. The
solar wind parameters may be expected to get stronger on 29 August
due to solar sector boundary crossing and an expected effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
The effect of this coronal hole may keep the solar wind stream
stronger for the next three days. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next three days (29, 30 and
31 August) with some possibility of isolated C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11020000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Townsville 2 11020011
Learmonth 2 12021000
Alice Springs 1 11010000
Norfolk Island 0 00020000
Gingin 1 00021000
Camden 2 11120010
Canberra 1 01020000
Launceston 3 12131000
Hobart 1 11020000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 01031000
Casey 5 33220000
Mawson 5 32221100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1302 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 20 Quiet to minor storm
30 Aug 25 Unsettled to minor storm
31 Aug 15 Quiet to active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 27 August and
is current for 29-30 Aug. Geomagnetic activity mostly stayed
at quiet levels on 28 August. Geomagnetic activity may rise to
active and minor storm levels on 29 and 30 August due to the
effect of crossing a solar sector boundary and that of a high
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. Activity
may then gradually weaken to active through to unsettled and
later quiet levels on 31 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the UT day, 28 August. Mild to significant depressions in MUFs
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed from 29 to
31 August due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
31 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 27 August
and is current for 29-30 Aug. Mild to moderate MUF depressions
were observed in most parts of Australian/NZ regions during the
UT day, 28 August. Mild to significant depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions may be observed in this region
from 29 to 31 August due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 315000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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