[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 30 09:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 87/30 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 Apr.
Region 2537(S07W61) was the source of most of the B flaring activity.
Solar activity is expected to range from Very Low to Low over
the next 3 days. The solar wind speed decreased slightly to be
~~ 350km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component varied
between +/-4 nT predominantly northward. A coronal hole is likely
to enhance the solar wind speed today, 30 Apr. Minor glancing
blow from 28 Apr CME activity could result in further enhancement
day 2, 1 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 3 12101012
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Gingin 0 11000000
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 2 12001001
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 22200000
Mawson 4 22101003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2112 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 20 Quiet to Active with a chance of minor Storm
levels.
01 May 20 Quiet to Active with a chance of minor Storm
levels.
02 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 29 April and
is current for 30 Apr to 1 May. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
in the Australian region during 29 Apr UT. Quiet conditions are
likely to continue until the expected onset of a recurrent coronal
hole high speed wind stream sometime today. Active conditions
should follow, possibly reaching minor storm levels. A minor
glancing blow from 28 Apr CME activity could contribute to this
disturbance day 2, 1 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Poor-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
01 May Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 May Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely over the next 3 days with
periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 May 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 May 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 29 Apr
were generally mildly depressed in the Australian region. On
UT days 30 Apr, 2 May, the mid and high latitude regions could
experience slightly stronger MUF depressions in response to the
expected active geomagnetic conditions from today, 30 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 75400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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