[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 26 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 27 09:30:29 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              87/30              86/29

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 26 Apr. 
Newly numbered region 2536(N16E60) produced several B class flares, 
further B-class flaring with a chance of C-class flares is expected 
from this region over the next few days. The solar wind speed 
decreased slightly to be ~420km/s at the time of this report. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field varied 
between +/-5 nT. Expect the solar wind speed to be at ambient 
levels over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11112113
      Cocos Island         4   11112122
      Darwin               4   11111113
      Townsville           5   21112113
      Learmonth            7   21212223
      Alice Springs        4   00112113
      Norfolk Island       4   11112112
      Gingin               7   21212223
      Camden               4   11112112
      Canberra             4   10112113
      Launceston           6   21123112
      Hobart               5   11123112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   10023011
      Casey               11   33322223
      Mawson              25   13211147

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           46   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1222 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr     5    Quiet
28 Apr     5    Quiet
29 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the 
Australian region during 26 Apr UT. Geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be mostly Quiet over 27-29 Apr under nominal solar 
wind levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
28 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely over the next 3 days due 
to low ionization levels resulting from lower than predicted 
solar activity for this period in the solar cycle.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Apr    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
28 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
29 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day, 26 Apr, 
were generally depressed over all Australian region. Isolated 
periods of sporadic E and spread F were noted in the Australian 
region. Expect near predicted values to mild depressions over 
the next 3 days due to low incoming solar ionising flux.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 513 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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