[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 25 09:30:27 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 24 April. 
SOHO LASCO C2 imagery showed a large CME on the northern limb 
of the Sun with an angular extent near 180 degrees beginning 
at 24/0424UT, followed by a weaker CME at 24/1524UT. H-Alpha 
and SDO imagery show no evidence of solar activity related to 
these CMEs on the visible solar disc. STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery 
shows the CME was induced by active region 2529 on the far side 
of the Sun. CMEs will not be geoeffective. Solar activity is 
expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight 
chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed was near 500 km/s 
over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field varied between +8/-6 nT and was predominantly 
positive over the last 24 hours. Expect the solar wind speed 
to remain elevated over the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   21212431
      Cocos Island         5   21112230
      Darwin               7   21112331
      Townsville          10   21213431
      Learmonth            9   22212430
      Alice Springs        8   21212430
      Norfolk Island       6   21112321
      Gingin              11   22212441
      Camden               9   21213430
      Canberra             9   21212431
      Launceston          11   22223431
      Hobart              10   21213431    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    15   11123621
      Casey               16   44422332
      Mawson              26   33533552

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              84   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            70   (Active)
      Melbourne           66   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   1201 2235     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Active for the UT 
day, 24 April due to an elevated solar wind speed. Expect Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions today and a gradual return to Quiet conditions 
over the 26-27 April period as the solar wind returns to nominal 
levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect lower then predicted MUFs over the next 3 days 
due to low ionization levels resulting from lower than predicted 
solar activity for this period in the solar cycle.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Apr    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
26 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
27 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day, 24 April, 
were near predicted values during local daytime hours and mildly 
depressed during local night time hours in the Australian region. 
Expect near predicted values to mild depressions over the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    83800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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