[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 23 09:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 April.
SOHO LASCO C2 imagery showed no CMEs over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
days with a slight chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed
increased from 400 km/s to just over 600 km/s over the last 24
hours due to recurrent coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Currently
the solar wind has settled to around 550 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-10 nT
over the last 24 hours, however was predominantly positive. Expect
the solar wind speed to remain elevated over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22113322
Cocos Island 7 22113311
Darwin 7 22113222
Townsville 9 22123313
Learmonth 6 21113222
Alice Springs 4 21012212
Norfolk Island 4 11012222
Gingin 7 22112322
Camden 9 22123323
Canberra 6 21022322
Launceston 9 12123323
Hobart 8 12123322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
Macquarie Island 7 11033312
Casey 12 33322323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 4 1211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 12 Unsettled
24 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled for the
UT day, 22 April due to an increase in solar wind speed. Expect
Quiet to Unsettled conditions to prevail over the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect lower then predicted MUFs over the next 3 days
due to low ionization levels resulting from lower than predicted
solar activity for this period in the solar cycle.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
24 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 22 April
and is current for 23 Apr only. Conditions for HF radio propagation
on UT day, 22 April, were generally depressed over all Australian
region this was mainly associated with low incoming solar ionising
flux. Conditions are expected to remain depressed over the next
three day. Isolated periods of sporadic E were noted in the Australian
region with longer periods noted over Cocos Island.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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