[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 15 issued 2355 UT on 17 Sep 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 18 09:55:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
C9.0 0303UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0941UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during 17 September due
to an M1.1 flare from solar region 2415 in addition to many C-class
flares. Further C-class flaring is expected from region 2415
with a reasonable chance of M-class flares. No earth-directed
CMEs were observed during 17 September. A coronal hole continues
to produce mildly elevated solar wind speeds. These conditions
are expected to decline slowly during the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 32231102
Cocos Island 4 22211101
Darwin 5 22221102
Townsville 7 32231112
Learmonth 8 32231103
Alice Springs 6 32221102
Norfolk Island 7 32231102
Culgoora 7 32231102
Gingin 8 32231103
Canberra 7 32231102
Launceston 9 33331102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 22461001
Casey 12 44332002
Mawson 33 65433116
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2222 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of active periods and minor storm levels at high
latitudes
19 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region were
mostly quiet to unsettled with elevated activity at high latitudes.
The observed variations in the geomagnetic activity during 17
September are due to elevated solar wind speeds streaming from
a large northern hemisphere coronal hole. Isolated active and
minor storm periods at high latitudes are possible as the coronal
effects subside otherwise conditions should be mostly quiet to
unsettled. Conditions are expected to trend back to mostly quiet
levels over the next couple of days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair
19 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair
20 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected to continue
over the next few days primarily due to low levels of ionising
solar radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
19 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions were observed during 17
September over the Australian region due to low levels of ionising
radiation and sustained mildly elevated geomagnetic activity
levels. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next few days.
SWFs are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 99600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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