[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 15 issued 2335 UT on 10 Sep 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 11 09:35:13 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed ranged between 400km/s to 450km/s
over the UT day. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) mostly
varied between +/-6 nT. Bz stayed negative up to around -8 nT
late in the day. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at moderate
levels over the next 24 hours. An equatorial positioned coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream is expected to arrive in the
next 12 hours. Very Low solar activity expected for the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 21212332
Cocos Island 8 21212332
Darwin 8 21212332
Townsville 9 21212333
Learmonth 7 20202332
Alice Springs 7 20212332
Norfolk Island 5 21211222
Culgoora 8 21212332
Camden 7 21211332
Gingin 13 20212452
Canberra 7 20211332
Melbourne 8 21221332
Launceston 10 21212433
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 14 31332442
Casey 15 43422332
Mawson 24 43423445
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 5566 6554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 20 Initially Quiet to Unsettled, then Unsettled
to Minor Storm
12 Sep 25 Active to Minor Storm
13 Sep 17 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Active levels observed over the last
24 hours due to southward Bz and moderate solar wind speed. Due
to anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream, geomagnetic conditions may rise from Unsettled to Active
levels with the possibility of Minor Storm periods in the second
half of the day on 11 September. Due to the same effect conditions
may remain high at Active to Minor Storm levels on 12 September
and then gradually decline to Active down to Unsettled levels
on 13 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
13 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mild to significant MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours due to very
low levels of ionising radiation and increased geomagnetic activity.
Poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Nearly similar
HF conditions expected from 11 to 13 September due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 55% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 5 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
12 Sep 0 20 to 50% below predicted monthly values
13 Sep 10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to significant MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours in AUS/NZ regions
due to very low levels of ionising radiation and increased geomagnetic
activity. Nearly similar HF conditions expected from 11 to
13 September due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 28300 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list