[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 15 issued 2332 UT on 07 Sep 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 8 09:32:52 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity remained at very low levels over
the last 24 hours with no notable solar flare. As anticipated,
the earthward solar wind stream became stronger due the effect
of a coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased from around 460
km/s to over 600 km/s at one stage today and is currently around
550 km/s. The Bz component varied mostly between +6 and -12 nT
during this period, staying southwards for relatively longer
periods of time. Solar wind stream is expected to remain strong
for one more day and then show a gradual weakening over the following
two days. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 20 22334543
Cocos Island 15 22223444
Darwin 18 22224543
Townsville 21 23334543
Learmonth 19 22224544
Alice Springs 20 22224553
Norfolk Island 15 22323443
Culgoora 21 23334543
Camden 21 23334543
Gingin 22 22224554
Canberra 14 12233443
Melbourne 19 22334444
Launceston 24 23344544
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie Island 56 13466764
Casey 21 44333434
Mawson 51 44534576
Davis 76 33533496
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 43
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 3322 4242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 20 Active
09 Sep 12 Unsettled to Active
10 Sep 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Due to the anticipated effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole the geomagnetic activity increased
to minor storm levels during the last 24 hours. The continued
effect of this coronal hole may keep geomagnetic activity enhanced
to mostly active levels with isolated minor storm periods on
8 September. Activity is then expected to gradually decline from
active to unsettled levels on 9 September and further down to
unsettled to quiet levels on 10 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
09 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
10 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation and effect
of an increase in geomagnetic activity levels, mild to significant
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF conditions may be observed
on 8 September with the possibility of some improvements through
the following two days thereafter.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 30 15 to 40% below predicted monthly values
09 Sep 40 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
10 Sep 45 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 6 September
and is current for 6-8 Sep. Due to very low levels of ionising
radiation and effect of an increase in geomagnetic activity levels,
mild to significant MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
were observed over the last 24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be observed on 8 September with the
possibility of some improvements through the following two days
thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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