[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 15 issued 2343 UT on 05 Sep 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 6 09:43:01 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 5 Sep. There were few isolated B-class flares. The largest
was B3.0 occurring at 05/0215 from region 2410. The disappearing
solar filament (DSF) observed between 04/1709-1884 UT from
the southeast sector (~S17E10) of the sun produced a partial-halo
coronal mass ejection (CME). An update on the impact of this
CME is will provided latter upon the completion of our
model runs. Another erupting solar filament observed from the
same solar sector (S14E16) lifted off in SDO/AIA imagery between
05/0542-0637 UTC. However, it did not appear to have an associated
coronal mass ejection (CME). The 2-day outlook (6-7 Sep) is for
very low solar activity with small chance of C class flares.
During the last 24 hours, the solar wind declined gradually from
550 to 420 km/s. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -/+5
nT and Bt was nearly constant at 7 nT in the past 24 hours. Expect
solar winds continue declining over the next 24 hrs (6 Sep) as
the effects of the small positive polarity equatorial coronal
hole (CH95) wanes. Another coronal hole, though located high
in the Northern Solar Hemisphere may cause some weak enhancements
in the earth-bound solar winds on 7 and 8 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 12222222
Cocos Island 6 -1212321
Darwin 6 12222221
Townsville 7 12232222
Learmonth 5 11222221
Alice Springs 6 12222221
Norfolk Island 8 -4221122
Culgoora 6 02222222
Camden 6 02222222
Gingin 9 12223332
Canberra 5 02222221
Melbourne 9 --232232
Launceston 10 12333232
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 18 12354432
Casey 13 34332322
Mawson 42 34534656
Davis 20 --333451
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22 5453 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep 8 Quiet
08 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were generally quiet and at times
active during the last 24 hours (UT day 5 Sep). The observed
geomagnetic active over the last 24 hours were the after-effects
from the positive polarity equatorial coronal hole (CH 95). Conditions
are expected to trend back to mostly quiet levels latter today
as the coronal hole effects wane. Another coronal hole, though
located high in the Northern Solar Hemisphere may lead to some active
geomagnetic conditions at earth on the 7 and 8 Sep. An update
on the possible geomagnetic effects from the partial-halo CME
associated with the disappearing solar filament (DSF) observed
at 04/1709 UT will be provided as soon as our Enlil model runs
complete.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Globally, conditions for HF radio wave propagation are
depressed. The foF2 values over the Australian region are generally
10%-40% below long term predicted monthly values. Propagation
conditions are expected to trend back towards monthly predicted
values during the 4 week period approaching September equinox.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
07 Sep 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderately depressed ionospheric conditions were observed
across all AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours (UT day 5
Sep). These depressions are after-effects of active geomagnetic
conditions experienced on UT day 4 Sep associated with coronal
hole (CH 95). HF conditions are expected to improve slightly
over the next two days (6-7 Sep).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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