[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 31 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 1 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
31 Aug. Region 2403 produced only one significant C-class solar
flare peaking at 31/0522UT from the West limb. No earth directed
CMEs were observed on the SOHO LASCO coronagrams images for the
UT day. The 2-day outlook (1-2 Sep) is for very low solar activity
with some chance of C class flares. During the last 24 hours,
the solar wind dropped from 450 to 350 km/s. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -/+5 nT and Bt was mainly constant
at 6 nT throughout the last 24 hours. The solar winds are expected
to elevate over the next 24 hours (1 Sept) due to sector boundary
crossing followed by the possible influence of a positive polarity
equatorial coronal hole taking a geoeffective position on the
solar disk. The solar winds are expected to remain elevated on
2 Sep due to the high speed streams emanating from the coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11000111
Cocos Island 1 11100110
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 2 12100---
Learmonth 1 10000110
Alice Springs 2 02100110
Norfolk Island 1 01100011
Culgoora 1 01000111
Camden 2 12000011
Gingin 2 11010220
Canberra 0 01000010
Melbourne 2 12000121
Launceston 2 12001111
Hobart 2 12000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 9 33322122
Mawson 10 33111134
Davis 9 23221141
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 15 Initially quiet and becoming unsettled towards
the end of UT day
02 Sep 25 Unsettled to minor storm levels
03 Sep 15 Initially active and returning to quiet levels
towards the end of UT day
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were generally at quiet levels
during the last 24 hours (UT day 31 August). The two day outlook
is geomagnetic conditions will be mostly unsettled and at times
could reach to minor storms levels in the high latitude regions.
Minor storm levels on 1 and 2 Sept are forecasted due to a positive
polarity equatorial coronal hole taking a geoeffective position
on solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
02 Sep Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
03 Sep Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
COMMENT: Regional foF2 values are 10%-40% below long term predicted
monthly values. Ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted
values is expected to take longer than usual due to possibility
of further geomagnetic activity around 01Sep-02Sep and low solar
activity forecast for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
02 Sep 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
03 Sep 35 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support observed across all AUS/NZ
regions for the last 24 hours. Similar ionospheric support expected
over the next 3 days due to very low levels of solar ionising
radiation
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 91500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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