[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 22 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 23 10:30:28 EST 2015 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during 22 Oct UT. AR 2434(S09 
W46) produced a long duration C4 Flare peaking at 0340UT. This 
was associated with a partial halo CME observed in LASCO imagery 
after 0312UT and may have geoeffective consequences. ARs 2436(N08E09) 
and 2434 are still large and complex and will likely produce 
further strong C class flares and possibly an M-class flare during 
the next few days. The solar wind arriving at Earth gradually 
decreased as the influence of the coronal hole subside. The Bz 
component has been weak and predominantly northward. The possible 
arrival of the CME associated with the 0340UT C4 flare will increase 
the solar wind speeds on 24-25 Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21200121
      Cocos Island         4   11200131
      Darwin               3   21200121
      Townsville           3   10201121
      Learmonth            4   21200221
      Alice Springs        3   20200121
      Norfolk Island       3   21100122
      Culgoora             9   232--2--
      Gingin               5   21200231
      Camden               4   21210121
      Canberra             2   10100120
      Melbourne            3   11200221
      Launceston           5   21310221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     3   10201211
      Casey               14   34421133
      Mawson              16   23323253

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary              9   1213 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct     5    Quiet
24 Oct    15    Quiet to Active
25 Oct    20    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet during the UT 
day, 22 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain Quiet 
today, 23 Oct. The CME launched on 22/0312UT might impact the 
Earth commencing late 24 Oct. The outlook for 24-25 Oct is Quiet 
to Active with possible isolated periods of Minor Storm levels 
in the Southern regions of Australia and the Antarctic.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Oct    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct    65    Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct    60    Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Further improvements in ionospheric support in all regions 
was observed during the UT day 22 Oct. Similar conditions are 
expected today 23 Oct. Possible elevated geomagnetic activity 
late 24 Oct may negatively impact HF propagation conditions, 
mainly in the Antarctic region. Space Weather Services is currently 
not receiving data from many stations.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    95700 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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