[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 14 10:30:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2434(S08E74) produced several C-class flares, the largest being
a C9.5 flare that peaked at 1411 UT. As anticipated, the solar
wind stream remained strong today, with solar wind speed staying
between 500 and 600 km/s during most parts of the UT day due
to the continued effect of the coronal hole. The Bz component
of the IMF mostly varied between +/-7 nT over this period, staying
southwards for relatively longer periods of time. The solar wind
stream is expected to remain strong for the next two days due
to the coronal hole effect. Low levels of solar activity with
the possibility of more C-class and possibly isolated M-class
activities may be expected over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 22343433
Cocos Island 12 12333333
Darwin 13 22333423
Townsville 15 23333433
Learmonth 17 22343434
Alice Springs 14 22333433
Norfolk Island 13 12342333
Culgoora 13 21342333
Gingin 19 22343444
Camden 17 2--43433
Canberra - --------
Melbourne 18 13443433
Launceston 18 23443433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 31 23654533
Casey 20 44342334
Mawson 51 35544467
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24 0235 3554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 25 Mostly Unsettled to Active, isolated minor storm
periods possible
15 Oct 25 Mostly Unsettled to Active, isolated minor storm
periods possible
16 Oct 25 Mostly Unsettled to Active, isolated minor storm
periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels over
the last 24 hours. Due to the continued effect of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may
remain enhanced to Unsettled to Active levels with the possibility
of isolated Minor Storm periods for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next three days due to continued
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period
and low levels of ionising radiation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 4 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
15 Oct 4 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct 4 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 13 October
and is current for 13-15 Oct. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected for the next three days due to continued expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period and low
levels of ionising radiation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list