[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 3 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.5 0013 UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was high during 02 Oct UT. AR 2422
(S19 W67) produced a short duration M5.5 flare peaking at 00:13
UT, two M1.0 flares, and at least eleven C class flares. AR 2422
will likely produce more significant flares before it disappears
completely beyond the south west limb. Thereafter we expect solar
flare activity to drop to low levels. No Earthward directed CMEs
were associated with the flares occurring during 02 Oct. A modest
solar wind compression arrived at Earth during 01 Oct and its
impact declined during 02 Oct. The magnitude of the IMF reached
about 12 nT and the solar wind speed increased to about 400 km/s.
The solar wind speed is presently about 360 km/s and the Bz component
is weakly southward at about -2 nT. A Corotating Interaction
Region (CIR) and subsequent fast solar wind may arrive at Earth
today, 03 Oct. The effects of this disturbance may be compounded
by the arrival of a glancing blow from the bright CMEs launched
toward the west on 30 Sep. If these CMEs do impact Earth, they
are expected to arrive during 04 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 12322221
Darwin 1 01101000
Townsville 8 13322221
Learmonth 7 23222221
Norfolk Island 7 223222-0
Culgoora 7 -2322211
Camden 7 22322221
Canberra 5 12222211
Melbourne 10 13333221
Launceston 12 13433321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 11 23233---
Casey 19 441-----
Mawson 19 343-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1121 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 25 Active
04 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
05 Oct 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 1 October and
is current for 2-4 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled
to active during 02 Oct UT. The Kp index reached 4 during 03-09
UT due to the ongoing impact of the solar wind compression which
arrived during 01 Oct. A CIR and subsequent fast solar wind may
arrive at Earth today, 03 Oct. The effects of this disturbance
may be compounded by the arrival of a glancing blow from the
bright CMEs launched toward the west on 30 Sep. If these CMEs
do impact Earth, they are expected to arrive during 04 Oct. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to reach active to minor storm levels
during 03-05 Oct. A major geomagnetic storm is possible depending
on the strength of the CME impacts.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were moderately
depressed at mid-latitude locations during 02 Oct. A minor geomagnetic
storm is expected during 04-05 Oct. This may lead to deeper depressions
during 04-06 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 50 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Oct 45 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
05 Oct 45 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were moderately
depressed throughout the Australian region during 02 Oct UT.
The T indices were mostly in the range 40 to 60 for individual
stations. However, the T index was only 30 for Darwin and 34
for Perth. A minor geomagnetic storm is expected during 03-05
Oct. This may lead to deeper depressions during 04-06 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 45900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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