[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 1 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1059 UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during 30 Sep UT. AR 2422
produced two weak M class flares, an M1.3 event peaking at 10:59
UT and an M1.1 event peaking at 13:20 UT. AR 2422 is still large
and complex and it will likely produce more M class flares during
the next 2 days. AR 2422 is rotating towards the south west limb
and hence into a less geoeffective location. SOHO LASCO coronograms
recorded two bright CMEs during 30 Sep, one expanding toward
the north west and the other toward the south west. These CMEs
are not Earthward directed. A significant solar filament is located
in a geoeffective location in the Southern Hemisphere. Coronal
Holes 692 and 693 have rotated into the Western Hemisphere. A
Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) and subsequent fast solar
wind is expected to arrive at Earth during 2-3 Oct. The slow
solar wind arriving at Earth gradually decreased to its current
value of 300 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF decreased to 2 nT
and the Bz component has been weak and predominantly northward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 1 12000001
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 0 11000000
Gingin 1 11100001
Camden 1 11010011
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 1 11110010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 12310111
Mawson 3 21110022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1312 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 6 Quiet
02 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet on 30 Sep 2015. The
Earth is presently immersed in slow solar wind and the geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet today, 1 Oct.
A Corotating Interacting Region (CIR) and subsequent fast wind
is expected to arrive at Earth during 2-3 Oct and drive unsettled
to active geomagnetic conditions. A minor geomagnetic storm is
possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mixed at mid-latitude locations today, 1 Oct. They may
be slightly depressed for some regions and moderately depressed
for other regions. Significant enhancements are possible at low
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 55 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
02 Oct 55 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
03 Oct 55 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mixed throughout
the Australian region during 30 Sep UT. The T index for Cocos
Island was 70 (near to normal) but the T index for Niue was only
33. The T indices for Townsville and Norfolk Island were 42 and
38, respectively. However, the T indices for Perth, Sydney Canberra
and Hobart were in the range 52 to 62 (mildly depressed).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 44500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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