[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 17 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 18 10:30:24 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 108/58 106/55
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to continue to remain very low for the next 3 days.
Solar wind speed mostly varied between 360 km/s to 380 km/s during
the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF mostly varied between
+/-5 nT during this period. Solar wind stream is likely to gain
strength from today as a high speed solar wind stream from a
coronal hole is expected to arrive today and a glancing blow
is possible from the CMEs related to the large filaments that
lifted off the south-west region during late hours on 15 and
early hours on 16 November (UT day). Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next three days (18 to 20
November) with some possibility of C-class activity..
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 11111332
Cocos Island 3 10110221
Darwin 6 21110332
Townsville 7 21111332
Learmonth 7 21111332
Alice Springs 6 11110332
Norfolk Island 3 11110221
Culgoora 10 22-32233
Gingin 6 10111332
Camden 7 11221332
Canberra 3 11110221
Launceston 8 12221332
Hobart 7 12111323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 12231231
Casey 12 34321223
Mawson 12 33212243
Davis 13 33322243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 3233 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 30 Quiet to minor storm
19 Nov 30 Unsettled to minor storm
20 Nov 15 Unsettled turning to quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels on 17 November (UT day). Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to rise from quiet to minor storm levels on 18 November due to
the expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a
coronal hole and possible glancing blow from the CMEs observed
late on 15 and early on 16 November. This coronal hole effect
may keep the conditions enhanced to unsettled to minor storm
levels on 19 November. Conditions are then expected to gradually
decline to unsettled and then quiet levels on 20 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values on 17 November.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be expected on 18 and 19
November, especially on high and some mid latitude locations
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these
days. Conditions may gradually return to near normal by late
hours on 20 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values across the Australian/NZ
regions on 17 November. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may
be expected on 18 and 19 November, especially in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days. Conditions may gradually return to near
normal by late hours on 20 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 20500 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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