[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 16 10:30:24 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 104/53 102/50 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to be very low for the next 3 days. A large filament
began lifting from the southwest late in the UT day. This has
the potential to be geoeffective in a few days time. The solar
wind speed declined further to ~410 km/s. Total IMF strength
grew, peaking at 9 nT, and is now around 7 nT. The Bz component
has been negative since around 18 UT, dipping to -7 nT, currently
-6 nT. Solar wind speed is likely to reduce further on 16-Nov,
before picking up 17-18 Nov due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 12221212
Cocos Island 4 11111221
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 5 21112222
Alice Springs 4 12111212
Norfolk Island 3 -1120012
Culgoora 11 3332-322
Gingin 6 21122222
Camden 5 12221112
Canberra 2 01121101
Launceston 7 12232212
Hobart 4 11221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 12131110
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 12 33323223
Davis 10 23323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 3322 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Nov 20 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across Australia over the last 24
hours were quiet. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Australia
again on 16-Nov, with possible brief unsettled periods. Unsettled
to active conditions are likely from late 17-Nov due to coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next 16-17
Nov, with some slightly degraded conditions possible on 18-Nov
due to geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 13 November
and is current for 14-16 Nov. MUFs were near predicted values
across the Australian region on 15-Nov and are expected to remain
so for 16-17 Nov, with slight depressions possible 18-Nov due
to expected geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 96500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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