[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 14 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C1 X-ray flare from region 2452 (S07E19). Solar activity
is expected to be very low over the next 3 days. The solar wind
speed decreased to ~350 km/s around 07 UT and has since climbed
to peak around 510 km/s. Total IMF strength reached a peak of
12 nT around 15 UT and has since declined to around 5 nT. The
Bz component most mostly negative until around 14 UT, dipping
to -9 nT, then fluctuating between +/-8 nT and gradually damping.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 21023423
Cocos Island 6 11122321
Darwin 10 21023423
Townsville 11 21033423
Learmonth 9 11023432
Alice Springs 9 11023423
Norfolk Island 7 21023322
Culgoora 15 33--33-3
Gingin 8 11122333
Camden 13 2--23423
Canberra 7 11023322
Launceston 14 12134433
Hobart 13 --123433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 17 10135532
Casey 16 34333333
Mawson 30 43134456
Davis 12 22234332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1012 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic activity across Australia over the last 24
hours was mostly quiet, with unsettled to active conditions 15-18
UT, most likely due to an extended period of southward IMF Bz.
Some unsettled periods are possible on 14-Nov, reaching active
levels 15-16 Nov due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions are expected to continue for the
next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 13 November
and is current for 14-16 Nov. Moderate MUF depressions were observed
after local dawn in most regions. Moderate depressions are expected
to continue for the next 3 days, with minor geomagnetic activity
and low levels of ionising radiation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:36%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 76100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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